Supply-Demand Tight Balance Continues SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Awaiting US Fed Meeting Guidance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of October 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract closed at 285,180 yuan/mt, up 0.08% from the previous day. Intraday trading hovered at highs with narrow fluctuations, with the price range concentrated around 284,000–285,500 yuan/mt. During the same period, LME tin futures were quoted at $36,095/mt, up slightly by 0.01% from the previous day.

Today's SHFE tin movement was mainly influenced by the interplay between the tight supply-demand balance and macro sentiment. Supply side, global tin ore supply bottlenecks remained prominent, with slow progress in production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region and strict export policy restrictions in Indonesia, making it difficult to effectively fill the raw material supply gap. Domestic and overseas tin inventories continued to hover at historically low levels, providing solid support for prices.

Macro perspective, the market awaited the results of the US Fed's interest rate meeting later in the day. Although progress in China-US trade consultations alleviated some trade friction concerns and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to build, investor sentiment remained cautious, with noticeable heat from bulls reducing positions and pulling back. The US dollar index fluctuating rangebound kept the base metals market in a wait-and-see atmosphere. From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is currently in a consolidation pattern at highs, facing some resistance near 285,000 yuan/mt, with support around the 280,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, tin prices are expected to hover at highs, with upside limited by weak traditional demand and downside supported by supply shortages and low inventories. The market awaits new policy guidance from the US Fed's interest rate meeting, as well as further clarity on fundamental signals such as production resumption progress in Myanmar and policy changes in Indonesia.